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I can't tell you how shocked I was to see you referencing Sally Satel -- there may be hope yet for the ascendancy of tough-minded, anti-PC, Bobby Kennedy-Style liberalism. Then you make a good point about how bad it is to subject children to onerous labour -- hardly a point of constitutional law, though. It would seem that the solution was simply to recognize that children don't have a right of contract under the 14th, just as they don't have so many other rights (such as certain procedural rights in criminal cases, etc.). The Supreme Court, as usual, has only served to obscure this fact in an ad hoc manner. In Tinker v. Des Moines, the court ascends to ringing rhetoric -- a minor doesn't surrender his rights at the schoolhouse door -- without stating just what rights a minor has. Apparently whatever rights a minor might have, it doesn't extend to freedom from imprisonment in a school without due process.The craziness of the Supreme Court in rubber-stamping each power grab by the national legislature via the commerce clause has finally reached its endpoint. The Lopez decision and the striking down of the Violence Against Women Act (predicated on -- get this -- the commerce clause) makes clear that this Supreme Court finally takes the notion of limited powers seriously. The real test of sincerity will come when it strikes down Bush's anti-abortion act as beyond the limited powers of the federal governemnt.The commerce clause had become so elaticized that the Violence Against Women Act was predicated not on regulation of commerce, but the claim that fear of violence had an economic impact. By that logic (the same bogus logic used to support the law that convicted Lopez), the federal government can outlaw shoes with shoelaces, if it has time-motion and economic evidence suggesting that use of shoelaces has an adverse economic impact. Attempts by the federal government to outlaw interstate trade in child-labor produced products is simply a rather transparent attempt to bootstrap social legislation to the commerce clause, and so get around the limitations on federal power. I continue to believe that we can effect good social legislation at the state levels, and where necessary, make the required federal constitutional changes necessary to have federal laws to the same effect. This is certainly not the quickest way to improve society, but it has the advantage of being constitutional.
The reasons for repeated lip-smacking from Ralph and others about the Mary Rosh messages seem clear enough: these people want to believe that such a masquerade must somehow affect the validity of Lott's actual research. OK, explain just how that works. Is vanity and deceptive self-promotion (if that is what really happened)a conclusive disqualification for professionals? Are you SURE you want to answer yes? Anyway, I thought right away of a quite different and plausible explanation for the Mary Rosh messages, but I'm keeping it to myself. As for the 1997 survey, I know of no conclusive evidence either way. Do you? Do any of you have anything you'd take to court in a libel suit? My basic position on such telephone surveys is that the primary data are useless anyhow, for many reasons, so they're a waste of time. In the end, Lott's work stands or falls on the adequacy of his statistical model of the relationship between reported crime rates and access to concealed carry permits. I can't dissect the model and understand the technical issues in Lott's work, and I gather that none of you here can either, but I'm damned sure that Mary Rosh has nothing to do with statistics. She sure can elicit some embarrassing behavior from gun-haters, though. The preliminary CDC report on pro- and anti-gun 'studies' is bad news for Lambert & Co. as well as Lott, it seems. But where is the recognition of this? Why are there no comments on the papers by Maltz & Targonski that show significant gaps in county reports of crime in more than a dozen states? These gaps would affect both sides of the present argument over the possible effects of concealed carry laws. The only position they conclusively falsify is the 'common sense' notion that gun regulation obviously and definitely reduces crime, in porportion to its strictness. This of course leaves undecided the important questions concerning the appropriate statistical model to be used if there is ever enough trustworthy data to process.And before any of you raises his hand, I treated Bellesiles the same way as Lott: as an author. The nature of the factual and methodological errors was much more transparent and easily verifiable in Bellesiles' work than in what Lott and his critics have done. Now, I ask Ralph to review his recent postings about the Lott matter and to compare them with his earlier postings about the almighty process in the Bellesiles case. I find an unbecoming difference in the tone and content of his recent statements. NOBODY has information that permits a safe conclusion on the relation between access to concealed carry permits and crime. Finally, I'd just like to remind you all, including Mr. Lambert, that none of this nit-picking about models matters in the end anyhow, since the Second Amendment affirms an individual right to keep and bear arms at least until the Supreme Court rules to the contrary. 041b061a72